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r/dataisbeautiful · u/omitousiAug 1, 2026, 2:50 PM

[OC] I simulated 1,000 basketball seasons — the best team on paper won the title only 14.7% of the time

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Comments

u/JeromesNiece1Aug 1, 2026, 3:16 PM
How does this compare to the actual rate at which the preseason best team on paper wins the title? Because it feels like it's higher than that. Dynasties happen more frequently than this.
- u/ValueReads1Aug 1, 2026, 3:20 PM
  This is because trades happen midseason, anybody not in the top 5 odds wise sells off all their good assets, this 'simulation' has nothing to do with how actual real life teams are operated
  - u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:48 PM
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:47 PM
  Good instinct — reality is much more chalk than my sim. Preseason favorites won \~57% of titles from 1992-2010 and 9 of a recent 16-season stretch; the pre-playoff favorite has won \~70% since 1980, though only 3 of 7 from 2019-2025. Against that, my sim's 14.7% says my universe runs way flatter than the real league — details on why in the reply above.
  - u/[deleted]1Aug 1, 2026, 7:07 PM
u/carlton_urkel1Aug 1, 2026, 3:22 PM
Property of your model, not a property of the real world until you prove otherwise, but presented as a fact about the NBA.
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:46 PM
  Completely fair, and I should have framed it louder: this is a property of my sim's universe — a fresh fictional 30-team league every season — not a claim about the NBA. The gap you're pointing at is the interesting part: the real preseason favorite wins roughly 50-70% of titles depending on era and how you define "favorite," against 14.7% in my sim. That delta is now my calibration roadmap, and this thread basically wrote it for me.
  - u/ainshalosh1Aug 1, 2026, 4:10 PM1 reply
u/[deleted]1Aug 1, 2026, 3:23 PM
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u/pwndnoob1Aug 1, 2026, 3:25 PM
Well, that doesn't match reality. At all. (Forgive me for using Google AI). Elite Tier Favorites: The vast majority of champions open training camp as top-tier favorites; since 1984, nearly all title teams had preseason odds of 9-1 or better, with many in the 3-1 or even-money range. 9-1 is a pretty low bar. In 2025 that's 8 teams and that was very high. In a year like 2016 it is 4. In 2017 and 2018 it's 2 teams. Even the upsets were top 10 teams. The 2014 Warrior were +2800 to win the championship. Very few people saw it coming. That was the 8th best odds. What's the point of making a simulator if it doesn't simulate the thing you are trying to simulate? Because with the power of star players and the RNG dulling caused by 7 game playoff series, favorites are very likely to win.
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:46 PM
  This is the most useful comment this project has received, genuinely. You're
  
  right on the history. Three mechanical reasons my universe lands so far from
  
  the real one:
  
  Every simulated season is a FRESH league — zero dynasty compounding. The
  
  real "favorites win" rate is heavily driven by the same superteam
  
  contending four or five straight years.
  
  My "best on paper" is the mean rating of a team's top 8. That spreads
  
  talent far flatter than real superstar concentration, where the top two
  
  players decide playoff series.
  
  Measured, not guessed: my #1 seeds lose in round 1 ~35% of the time vs ~9%
  
  in the real league. Best-of-7 in my engine doesn't dull variance nearly
  
  enough — star dominance needs to bend series outcomes much harder.
  
  The point of owning the sim is that these are now fixable numbers instead of
  
  vibes. Calibrating playoff star power is the next patch, and I'll rerun the
  
  1,000 seasons after.
  - u/pwndnoob1Aug 1, 2026, 4:08 PM1 reply
u/Tight_Invite25791Aug 1, 2026, 3:35 PM
If you go by preseason title odds as a gauge of roster strength, 17 of the last 42 preseason favorites have gone on to win the title (40.5%). Now this doesn't account for smaller league sizes in the past, nor does it account for the current environment of parity. However, I'd ballpark the odds as being slightly higher
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:50 PM
  This is the cleanest benchmark in the thread — thank you for actually running the count. 40.5% over 42 seasons brackets nicely with the other figures people posted (\~57% for 1992-2010, much lower in the recent parity era), so I'm adopting it as the calibration target: after I retune star dominance in playoff series, the best team on paper should land somewhere in the 30-45% band instead of 14.7%. Two honest caveats on my side that won't fully close the gap: my sim generates a fresh league every season (no dynasty compounding), and "best on paper" by roster ratings isn't identical to "best by title odds" — odds bake in information my paper metric can't see. I'll post the before/after rerun when the recalibration lands.
  - u/Zeddit_B1Aug 1, 2026, 4:19 PM
u/RicoHavoc1Aug 1, 2026, 3:35 PM
This is just made up BS, probably better places to post this
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:56 PM
  Nothing made up — 1,000 full seasons through the same engine the game runs, methodology in the source comment. Name the number you doubt and I'll rerun it in front of you.
  - u/RicoHavoc1Aug 1, 2026, 7:04 PM
u/sirchandwich1Aug 1, 2026, 3:39 PM
How do you measure “roster strength”?
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:57 PM
  Mean overall rating of each team's best 8 players, measured before a single game is played. (Overall = the same position-weighted attribute blend the game itself uses.) It's deliberately a "paper" metric — and as others noted above, that's part of the gap: betting odds bake in information that a paper rating can't see, like coaching, fit, and health.
  - u/sirchandwich1Aug 1, 2026, 4:02 PM1 reply
u/SStrikerRC31Aug 1, 2026, 3:40 PM
You didn’t build anything. 🤖🗑️
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 3:57 PM
  The commit history and the 307-test suite respectfully disagree :) Ask me anything about it — the possession state machine, why team turnovers were 8.2/game before I repriced them to 13.4, how a six-letter seed maps to a league via FNV-1a. Happy to go exactly as deep as you want.
u/birdie_sparrows1Aug 1, 2026, 3:51 PM
An interesting metric would be the average number of games won by the losing team in all playoffs series in your simulator vs. the real world. I don't watch a ton of NBA but 17% seems kinda low.
- u/omitousi1Aug 1, 2026, 4:02 PM
  Great metric — so I ran it. 3,000 playoff series across 200 sim seasons: \- Avg games won by the series loser: 1.8 (real NBA ≈ 1.7) \- Avg series length: 5.8 games (real ≈ 5.7) \- Sweeps: 11.5% (real ≈ 1-in-7, \~14%) \- Game 7s: 31% (real ≈ 2-in-7, \~28%) So series-level competitiveness is surprisingly close to the real thing. Which sharpens the thread's earlier point: the divergence isn't how long series run, it's WHO advances — favorites don't win them often enough. Per- game variance looks about right; the star-dominance edge is what's under- modeled. (The 17% you remembered was 14.7% — the best-on-paper title rate.)
u/Whichcar74291Aug 1, 2026, 6:10 PM
Not sure what you’re saying. The NBA team with the best regular season record has won the championship about 45% of the time. A lot more than 14% of the time.