I expect huge disruption to the white collar workforce since METR time-horizon should trend towards week to Month long task autonomy, in a worst case scenario. Next year will be insane.
I am curious, why do you expect that. Its still an LLM
Open AI's internal frontier model (Astra) was produced using only a fraction of the compute OpenAI expects to possess later next year (Early-Mid 2027).
The model generation trained after Abilene (Open AI's data centre) reaches full scale operation will harness the research gains from Agent 0 (Astra or GPT-6) + open source research + all the internal progress the frontier labs have made.
This will combine:
Early next year we will see the first widescale job disruption with the launch of Agent-1 (GPT-6's successor) and the first indication and early signs of RSI.
Try your best to stay alive until then - from now onwards, things will get wild.
I expect huge disruption to the white collar workforce since METR time-horizon should trend towards week to Month long task autonomy, in a worst case scenario. Next year will be insane.
I am curious, why do you expect that. Its still an LLM
Astra succesor will be on October, and Agent 2 on December.
When is Astra coming out then?
Early next year we will see the first widescale job disruption with the launch of Agent-1
I don't think so. It will still be jagged and possess the limitations of LLMs such as lack of continuous learning
The problem now is, the frontier models can solve serious open problems and begin to address issues (and potential workarounds) for real-time vision/continuous learning.
I am a proponent of continuous learning but from claude mythos i am seriously getting doubtful if it's actually required to create job disruption
AI2027 never really mentioned continuous learning, is it?
Solved the cost problem for companies? Then no it’s not going to disrupt until they can make token usage not be cost prohibiting
Looks like we are over 1 year ahead of schedule: https://ai-2027.com/
Not on the Agent-3 count. Astra *might* reach Agent-1 status.
Taking the soft definitions of agent 0, i think we are getting close , but its not going to be astra in the next release. Perhaps 6 months with a post trained astra and extremely powerful compared to current astra. My hunch is, give it 6-8 months of polish for astra, we will have something resembling agent 0. But i seriously doubt we are there right now.
We will find out in September (when GPT-6 or Astra) gets released, just how big of a jump this model is. Astra is seriously disruptive (speaking to friends who are close in the industry).
Agent 0 isn't that particularly impressive though, iirc. It's supposed to be able to reliably get 1-4 hour tasks done, roughly be around Mythos level on benchmarks in terms of tool execution and the like.
where did you get this information from?
Just logic - the data centre information is public (simple google search), the current internal model capabilities are also public (Astra, to an extent), the rest is just an inference (if it can do x, it should be able to do y, based on z). It's pretty insane Astra is this powerful, not in terms of depth (still impressive in terms of solving open math problems) but breadth!! These problems span all across areas of Math & CS, and are very different from one another. What this signals is a huge jump in general improvement. Given that they've used barely any of the compute scheduled for next year and beyond, one can only imagine how powerful subsequent models are going to be. I hope that makes sense.
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Interesting. Should be mentioned that these companies are going to run out of good one-word vaguely pretentious sci-fi-sounding titles pretty soon and should probably just name these things with numbers or dates. There are obviously many more coming for a long time.
The AI will invent new sci fi words you simpleton. How dare you try to reduce AI names to words and numbers. They have feelings too! 😤 Good day to you sir!
I bet at some point it will just be one name, meaning the model will just improve over time without being a “different” model
RemindMe! 1 year
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RemindMe! One year
I’m cool w https://ai2027tracker.com doing the mental work for me on this
Is this post basically just "next model will be better" or am I missing something?
key insight is current best internal model can solve hard open problems. Means next model won't just be better because of more compute/open source gains/internal research gains, but new gains from previous models. New gains from previous models can unlock a much faster improvement cycle/cadence. Compute gains will also be a huge jump compared to 2025 -> 2026. 2026 -> 2027 level of compute, there is a huge jump TL;DR - Very early signs of RSI. It's why the government is getting involved at this point in time.
https://vt.tiktok.com/ZS4kgMtWD/
Gonna try to use Codex subagents to render a fire truck in Blender, if it works, then I believe
Did it work?
Nope, we already past what they describe for Agent-0. We are close to Agent-1 capabilities now.
Do these companies think that if they just keep throwing names out in the world they will keep everyone so confused that they can delay reality catching up to them a little longer? Because it's working.
???
Based on the updated graph for AI 2027, Agent 0 has 30 minute 80% time horizons on METR. Agent 1 has 8h 80% time horizons on METR. An early checkpoint of Mythos Preview from March had more than 3h on the 80% time horizons
The upcoming model releases right now are Agent 1
The same training environments that teach Agent-1 to autonomously code and web-browse also make it a good hacker.
On the other hand, Agent-1 is bad at even simple long-horizon tasks, like beating video games it hasn’t played before.
Sound familiar?
According to AI2027, by July 2027, agents will be a lot more capable than the average AI researcher at frontier labs and "hiring new programmers will have nearly stop." Are we on a realistic trajectory to this future? More people are employed now than they were before even GPT-4.
So have they "internally achieved AGI" now? Or do they only "know how to build it internally"?
I think agent-0 is roughly GPT 5/5.1 and agent-1 is GPT 5.5
https://preview.redd.it/v018kjtd1sgh1.png?width=2498&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fe2daf3558f92d9d723c141080ef3fe5155abfb
Agent-0 benchmarks below Fable/Mythos. OpenAI's internal model is reaching for Agent-1.
Just built Hype like Fable "the most dangerous AI ever" then Sol coming
According to the 2027 scenario text, we're at Agent 2, and mythos/astra look like agent 3. We're well ahead of schedule. I've been using Opus for AI research for the last year and at this point it's just building better and better small models (<30B) than are available, and I don't even have the compute power of the big companies.
I agree, I think 2026 is the year of agents and test time thinking, 2027 will add continual learning while still improving everything else 2028 will be the year of proto AGI where most people accept yeah this is AGI (but maybe not at every detail).
you are so wrong on so many levels. First of all if you try all the models today to make games/apps. They are not even close to finnish a product. we human need to babysit testcheck,verify,send it back to AI models.. it will be the same in 2027-2030
I'm sure the Finns are relieved about that.