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r/AdvancedRunning · u/CRpancakes31 de jul. de 2026, 07:27

What's the most you could improve 5k time by in a year?

I know there's no hard number as everyone is different, genetics, etc. But I would still really appreciate advice if my goal is even somewhat feasible, or nearly impossible? Context below.

Goal:

Get ANY admissions help through xc/track to a top college. I do well academically but if I could get recruiting help to a T100 or even T50 that would be my dream.

Training History:

Started running in G6/7, just doing casual running; low mileage very inconsistent. Skip forward a bit to freshman year, running ~20 mins (I think it was 19:24 though I don't have records.)

In sophomore season, started training seriously but only 3 months before season, ran 19:24 again. This was ~30-40km/week.

Now going into junior year. Since around last year Nov, I've been doing 40km/week but the thing is I was taken out for 10 weeks due to running-unrelated injuries. Came back 5 weeks ago and now building back. Season is Sept-Nov.

Note: this is all raced in Singapore, which is very hot + humid. According to online/AI I can expect 20-45s faster in cooler climates. I'd be willing to fly to a cooler area if I thought I had a shot at running a fast enough time for my goal.

Happy to answer any other contextual details that may help. Realistically, can I achieve my goal of getting admissions help?

My main concern is going from low mileage to 30-40km/week (which I know is still considered low) yielded no results on paper. Even though it's not a huge change shouldn't it have boosted my time? I know D3 requires roughly 16s, which would be hard to get in a year, but I just want to know if I have a shot of reaching this if I all-in running. I'd also appreciate any training advice.

Comentários

u/9k0b331 de jul. de 2026, 07:32
To run in the 16s you will need to ramp up mileage but getting from 19~ to 16~ in a year with consistent training and ramping up mileage is possible
- u/CRpancakes131 de jul. de 2026, 07:52
  Hmm ok. What sort of mileage would I need? I know higher is better, but 19 to 16 would require high mileage that could potentially be unsafe, no? From what I've gathered most would say 80-90km/week max for high schoolers, and if that's the case (do correct me if I'm wrong) would that be enough to get me to 16 for would I need even higher for such a dramatic change? Also, do you have tips for increasing mileage? If I'm at 40km/week right now and obey most 'safe' rules it'll take way too long to get to 70+, especially since I would only start increasing mileage after junior season which is Nov. I have no history of running injuries tbf.
  - u/bluehobbs131 de jul. de 2026, 08:50
u/QuantumOverlord131 de jul. de 2026, 08:43
I run in the 16s, when I was running in the 20s I was on about 15mpw, to get into the 16s consistently I had to be around 50mpw. I did also manage to increase this milage in about a year, it involved basically doing a very high proportion of easy runs and alot of doubles and triples which caused me less fatigue than single long runs. The problem is, although it worked, it did leave me injured most of the time and one of these injuries became quite bad so I had a period where my times obviously got a bit worse. Looking back the timescale was, in reality, too short and I should have taken longer to increase.
- u/CRpancakes131 de jul. de 2026, 08:47
  Do you mind sharing roughly what age this was/is at? How long did it take to actually drop the time once the mileage increased? Also, what were your mileage increases like? I know you probably don't have a hard number but a rough estimate from 1 week to another would help.
  - u/QuantumOverlord131 de jul. de 2026, 08:54
u/TheSparrowDarts131 de jul. de 2026, 09:10
It would be helpful to include your gender. Sixteen minutes for a teenage boy is a somewhat different proposition to 16 for a teenage girl. I live and run here in Singapore. Given your lack of experience, I strongly recommend you consider engaging a coach or running group, this will help with accountability and ensuring you don't ramp too fast. There are heaps of groups and coaching team here. My wife is part of a group called SStar running (two sses). I am not a member but they have coached her to multiple PBs. I wouldn't rely too heavily on AI for this as everyones body and heat response is different. Good luck I hope you make it, but also if you don't, take heart. I know it can feel like your whole future rides on a certain degree or university. I missed out on my desired course by one point, it hasn't made a lick of difference long term, I am 45 now and I have a very successful career. Getting into uni is important, after that you can get your gpa up and swap into many other things.
u/spoc84331 de jul. de 2026, 09:15
This sort of improvement is entirely possible. It's something I roughly did in a year. Best things to do is just slowly and consistently do more and work from there. Slowly the doors will open. This is quite a nice place to be. Around a 19 minute runner down to mid 16 was actually quite easy to find improvements with just consistent running and slightly more week in, week out. It got harder after that. I would say to go from around ~19 to 16 was easier than to go from 16 to 15.