Is VDot estimate the best for accuracy of race paces?

Comentários

• u/MarkFI·23·31 de jul. de 2026, 09:33

  Personally, I wouldn’t put much into a marathon prediction from a 5k. Now if you had a recent half marathon that was predicting a 3:10 full marathon, that would be a different story and very realistic. If you have time, suggest racing a half before your full marathon to gauge where your longer distance fitness really is.

  • u/Intelligence_Tax·2·31 de jul. de 2026, 10:48

    I raced a half in May & managed 1:32:57, that's what gave me the idea for thinking i was fit enough for the 3:09-3:10 range my last one, but the heat conditions and the throwing up just after 10k made me adjust my pace drastically & turned into just trying to finish & not have to DNF or faint. I have my 1st 10K next week & a 10 miler the following weekend. Hoping to get Sub-70Min for the 10 miler, & as close to Sun-40 as i can for the 10K, but think I'm a little off that type of result atm from barely making the Sub-20. I do think a sub-70 is pretty doable from the Half result in May & how that type of pace has felt in training since, but I'm actually kind of nervous for the 10K😂, which might sound ridiculous but i'll go out at Sub-40 pace & try hang on for as long as possible

• u/ItzSamy·10·31 de jul. de 2026, 09:35

  5k and 42k is a big difference , there’s over 8 5ks in the full. A 5k is not a good reflection of what your body is able to achieve with a different form of fatigue. That’s not to say that you’re unable to achieve a 3:10, but just something to think about when using the calculator. The half is definitely a lot better of a measuring tool. All to say - for me, my times are accurate up until the half, will report back soon with the full.

  • u/Intelligence_Tax·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 10:32

    0% chance i could run at Sub-20 5k for a full any time soon 😂, but i would love to keep chipping away & hopefully get there one day. I was really dissappointed with my 2nd marathon in june-because i did more milage and felt fitter way fitter than when I ran the 3:16. The only real way to tell if you're fit enough would be longer MP runs, which i haven't been doing a lot of recently - so that could play a big factor with my next marathon aswell. Do you have any marathon specific sessions/runs that help you determine what pace you go out at when tackling a full?

• u/greenswan199·37·31 de jul. de 2026, 09:36

  The VDot times are only accurate if you're trained for the distance. It's useful as an indication of where you could get to with training - if you've done the training already, MP or tune up races + weekly mileage will give you a better idea of what you can actually run

  • u/SirBruceForsythCBE·21·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:31

    *The VDot times are only accurate if you're trained for the distance* This can't be stressed enough. People run a 18 min 5k on 4 hours a week, check a VDOT calculator and immediately think a sub 3 marathon is possible in 12 weeks. Using the mountains of data your $1k watch is giving you, especially on longer runs or marathon effort runs are a much better indicator of where you really are right now.

  • u/yettedirtybird·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 13:04

    On that note, how long would you think it would take to translate a 5k to the VDOT equivalent marathon? For example, I'm running a 17:30 5k right now at around 45mpw, and I'm planning on running a marathon in April, with a goal of being around 70mpw. The VDOT equivalent of my 5k is 2:47, which I think is doable, although obviously right now. However, I don't know if I should aim higher or not.

    • u/dillinjl·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 13:28·1 resposta

  • u/ggnndd12·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 13:58

    Yeah, XC runners can build up very impressive VDOT scores but that doesn’t mean they’ll translate to longer distances until the training has been done. But many runners find that mid-training MP sessions to be poor predictors of race-day performance. A supportive audience, many other competitors, and tapering cannot (or shouldn’t in the case of tapering) be replicated in training.

• u/WoodenPresence1917·4·31 de jul. de 2026, 09:53

  They're pretty accurate for shorter distances. For longer race the bigger question is whether you have the muscular endurance to hit race pace for that long, rather than whether you have the engine to run the pace in general. For reference I hit 38:45 I think in a 10k before my 3:07 mara, which is apparently about a 2:58 mara, but I was definitely lacking a lot of durability as I'd had a spotty training block. In contrast last marathon I had great durability from ultra training but very little training at race pace, so I struggled to hit 3:19 despite having run a sub-18 5k (which is about 2:52 equiv).

  • u/Intelligence_Tax·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:00

    Sub-18 is amazing, congrats. & the 3:07. What pace did you go out at for the 3:07 race? Did you try hold pace evenly throughout? or start a bit conservatively? I've really been neglecting gym work, but when i'm the 70-80mpw range, i feel a bit too tired for the gym work, so i need to find a way to balance it out more and keep energy levels higher, consistently

    • u/WoodenPresence1917·3·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:02

• u/Apprehensive_Alps_30·4·31 de jul. de 2026, 10:08

  If you are male under the age of 50 and run as a hobby, you can be almost certain that the VDot predictions for longer distances are too optimistic.

  • u/Pacofel·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:40

    That’s true, but in my own experience the VDot prediction shows an achievable goal after just over two years of serious training, but not after the first marathon training block.

  • u/MN_Wildcard·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 12:22

    This should be written in bold at the top of the VDOT table. Source me.... A moron who used to think this.

  • u/alchydirtrunner·1·31 de jul. de 2026, 12:47

    I have had VDot line up for me as a younger male (at the time), but only when I was running 80+ mpw for a full marathon build with several weeks in the 90-100mpw range. For me at least, it takes that kind of volume to have the muscular endurance to match the aerobic capacity.

• u/Ian_Itor·8·31 de jul. de 2026, 10:21

  I train on low volume, but have good speed on lower distances. My 5K time is comparatively much faster than my best M time. However, my HM PB correctly predicted my following marathon PB. Anecdotally, I‘d only ever predict the next distance, not skip one over. Naturally, the PB times for the estimates need to be representative and on race day you need to perform at your best. Bonking shouldn’t happen if you know your body and are prepped well. Weather and other factors like health issues play a role there, of course.

• u/redditthrower888999·3·31 de jul. de 2026, 10:52

  Take your 5k race time. Now go to Jack Daniel’s book and train using those paces for the marathon. You have to put in the mileage and training stimulus to have the equivalent times. Tempo and threshold running was the key for me to go from a few vdots off in the marathon to the same vdot.

• u/Pacofel·3·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:32

  Many years ago, my 5km VDot was 61, which equated for marathon to 2:41. I managed it, but only on my eighth marathon, two and a half years later.

• u/openplaylaugh·3·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:39

  Yes. Pretty damn accurate. But the caveat is "if you train at the same (relative) intensity for the appropriate period of time." Don't be a chucklehead and go from 5k to marathon. Climb the ladder.

• u/UsuallyRunning·2·31 de jul. de 2026, 11:55

  Unless you're estimating a full from a half, it's probably too optimistic. My mile time predicts a 2:18 marathon but that won't be happening. I know that's a bigger stretch but I "underperform" and fall off a cliff the longer the distance gets. Other peoples' curves are pretty similar, although maybe not quite as drastic as an 800 guy.